From Spring to Back-to-School: Shopper Trends and Advertising Strategies for Q2 & Q3 2025

As we move further into 2025, brands and retailers are navigating ongoing shifts in the consumer landscape. Economic challenges, evolving shopping habits, and rising costs are reshaping how shoppers make purchasing decisions.

Our Q2 2025 State of the Industry report explores the key consumer and market trends that will define the next few months, and outlines the strategies brands must adopt to stay competitive in a market that’s increasingly focused on value and smart shopping. Keep reading for a brief overview of what’s inside.

Spending Power in Flux

Consumer spending power is under pressure, with the National Retail Federation projecting a potential $78 billion decline in the next year. Tariffs on imports from Canada, Mexico, and China – 43% of imported goods – will drive up costs, with China facing a second 10% hikes in two months. While some retailers may absorb these costs in the short term, they will eventually need to raise prices, passing these increases on to consumers—underscoring the need for strategic planning and adaptability. 

Shoppers Are Adapting

A recent Rakuten study of 2,000 respondents highlights how economic pressures, shifting consumer priorities, and deal-seeking habits are shaping behavior. In response to economic uncertainty, consumers are becoming more intentional with their purchases, prioritizing savings and value-driven shopping strategies. Rakuten’s proprietary data reveals:

• 65.8% of shoppers are actively hunting for deals, discounts, and cash back opportunities. 
• 40.9% are switching to more budget-friendly brands or retailers.
• 31.4% are being more intentional about purchases, buying less but higher quality. 
• 28.7% are postponing major purchases until economic conditions improve. 
• 21.2% are prioritizing experiences over material goods.

The takeaway for brands? Value wins.

Shoppers are more selective and strategic in their spending, making it essential for brands to emphasize table-stake incentives like savings, free shipping, and easy returns. Delivering value will be key to maintaining loyalty and driving growth in 2025.

Anticipating Change: Key Considerations for Brands to Deliver Value and Stay Competitive

As consumer spending changes and financial pressures linger, brands need to plan carefully for the year ahead. Here are some key things to consider include:

• Pricing Strategies Will Be Disrupted – Brands face a pricing dilemma as new tarriffs are imposed. Many are hesitant to adjust prices prematurely, knowing that once changed, they are hard to reverse. This is not only a revenue decision but one that affects shopper loyalty. Flexible, data-driven pricing strategies will be critical for navigating this uncertainty.
• There’s Increased Demand for Retail Events – Nearly 70% of consumers are waiting for major promotional events to make purchases, so retail events will be even more critical. Success will depend on engaging shoppers both before and after these key periods to optimize performance and retention.
• Consumer Impact Will Vary – Economic constraints don’t affect all shoppers equally.  The impact on consumers will vary based on household finances, personal values, and comfort levels—just as the financial impact on brands and businesses will differ by category.
• Shopper Expectations are Higher – Consumers have heightened expectations for a superior experience. To meet these demands, brands must embrace agility and innovation, ensuring seamless connections with customers across all channels—both online and offline. This includes delivering personalized value, reliable customer service, and transparency at every touchpoint. 
• Value Is a Requirement, Not an Option – In a competitive market where multiple brands offer similar products, value becomes the key differentiator. Shoppers will gravitate toward the brand that delivers the most for their money. For brands, the challenge is balancing value with margin health.

Innovating to Navigate Today’s Variability

Our role is to empower our merchant partners to adapt to uncertainty and drive performance despite high variability. To support them, Rakuten is continuously evolving its solutions. Here are some of the upcoming innovations we’re rolling out:

• Programmatic Loyalty Expansion –  Programmatic Loyalty uses our first-party data and AI technology to identify the optimal Cash Back offer for each individual to drive conversion. This personalized approach helps brands avoid over-discounting to shoppers who need less incentive, supporting efficiency and protecting margins. This year, we are extending Programmatic Loyalty to support both Travel and Tiered merchants.
• Intent-Based Targeting for Personalized Rewards – We’re rolling out intent-based targeting to connect brands with shoppers based on their behavior across our platform. This approach allows them to effectively reach the right consumers with the right offer, maximizing conversion opportunities.
• Cash Back to Gift Card Program – Rakuten’s Cash Back to Gift Card Program makes rewarding shoppers easier and faster. By allowing shoppers to convert their Cash Back into gift cards, we get money back into the hands of our members quickly, tapping into their shopping intent and encouraging more shopping trips.

• Key Retail Moments: Shoppers are waiting for key moments to make their purchases. Brands that are present with the right offer when their shoppers are ready to buy have a distinct advantage. Rakuten-led events create high-impact opportunities for merchants to get in front of our audience when they are active and intent on spending. Some of these moments include:
  • Big Give Week (May 5-12, 2025) – A prime opportunity to engage high-intent shoppers with compelling offers.
  • The Big Stack (July 2025) – Designed to drive purchases and larger basket sizes through elevated incentives.

Rakuten Helps Brands Win in 2025

Consumer behavior is shifting, and brands that fail to evolve risk losing share. Rakuten is committed to helping brands navigate this transformation with data-driven insights, personalized offers, and flexible pricing strategies. The brands that succeed in 2025 will be those that embrace innovation, optimize value delivery, and invest in key moments to engage shoppers.

Get more details in our Q2 2025 State of the Industry Report or connect with a Rakuten representative today.