Holiday Shoppers Split on Spending as Retailers Double Down on Incentives

A new study from Rakuten, conducted with The Harris Poll, shows a holiday season that’s shaping up to be anything but predictable. Shoppers are divided on how much they’ll spend, retailers are ramping up incentives, and households with kids are planning to spend big — even if it means taking on more debt.

Shoppers are split between cutting back and spending more

This year, 28% of shoppers say they’ll spend less, while 26% plan to spend more. The split highlights a shift in where holiday dollars will come from. Families with children in the household are driving the increase, outspending households without kids by a wide margin (38% vs. 19%) — despite rising costs and financial pressures.

Nearly a quarter of all shoppers — across income levels — expect to take on more credit card debt to afford holiday shopping. Among parents with children in the household, that number jumps to 37%.

Retailers are betting big on Q4, despite shoppers’ financial strain

Retailers are entering the season with high hopes: 83% expect to hit their Q4 sales goals, buoyed by strong performance last year. Yet shoppers are feeling the pinch. Nearly half (46%) say rising monthly expenses like food and gas will impact their holiday plans, and only 37% feel confident they can afford non-essentials.

While most retailers acknowledge that shoppers are focused on affording essentials, only 3% believe consumers will fully trade down to value brands. Nearly a third (28%) of retailers believe shoppers will seek their favorite brands at discount retailers — a clear sign that value is driving behavior, even if brand preferences remain.

To win this season, retailers that align their strategies with value-driven behavior are best positioned to capture growth this season.

This year, stackable deals are table stakes 

Shoppers aren’t just looking for deals — they’re looking for stackable deals. Seventy-five percent say the ability to combine offers like free shipping, coupons, and Cash Back is important to their purchase decisions. And 26% won’t buy a gift unless they can stack incentives at checkout.

Retailers are responding accordingly:

• 50% will offer free shipping and returns
• 49% are prioritizing loyalty programs
• 44% are increasing investment in rewards and Cash Back

“Shoppers aren’t just looking for a good deal—they’re looking for the best combination of incentives, and they’re willing to shop around to find it,” said Julie Van Ullen, Chief Revenue Officer at Rakuten Rewards. “Retailers that make stacking easy and rewarding will stand out from the competition.”

Success this season hinges on stackable incentives and sensitivity to pressures

Retailers hoping to win this holiday season will need to do more than offer blanket discounts. They’ll need to:

• Prioritize performance-driven strategies like Cash Back
• Make value easy to find and stack
• Show empathy for shoppers navigating financial strain

The desire to celebrate is still strong, but shoppers are being more intentional than ever. Retailers who meet them with incentives and real value will not only drive growth, but build loyalty that lasts beyond the holidays.

Read the full press release here. 

Survey Methodology

The retailer and consumer surveys were conducted online within the United States by The Harris Poll on behalf of Rakuten.  The retailer survey fielded from August 25-30, 2025 among 107 retailer marketers in the US. The consumer survey fielded from August 21-25, 2025 among 2,087 adults aged 18 and older.  The sampling precision of Harris online polls is measured by using a Bayesian credible interval.  For this study, the sample data is accurate to within + /- 9.3 percentage points for the retailer survey and +/-2.5 percentage points for the consumer survey using a 95% confidence level. For complete survey methodology, including weighting variables and subgroup sample sizes, please contact steven.shaw@rakuten.com.