The Holiday Outlook 2025

2025 has been a year of persistent uncertainty — for both retailers and consumers. Economic signals continue to fluctuate, and confidence levels remain in flux. Yet amid this volatility, one thing remains clear: value is driving consumer behavior. 

Throughout the year, we’ve been surveying both our members and the general population to understand sentiment and behavior. Now, we’re revisiting these insights to see how they take shape in Q4 — and what they reveal about the holiday season ahead.

In uncertain times, loyalty is changing – but there’s a disconnect between consumers and marketers.

While only 5% of marketers believe loyalty is at risk, shoppers are telling a different story: 55% say they are seeking the lowest possible price — a sharp increase from 42% in late 2024.

Brand affinity alone is no longer enough. Today’s shoppers are willing to walk away if a better deal or more rewarding experience is available elsewhere. Loyalty now stems from a series of customer-centric, rewarding moments — not just name recognition or habit.

44% of Rakuten members consider a “good deal” to be about stacking multiple benefits.

Modern consumers are more strategic than ever. They’re not just searching for discounts — they’re actively layering multiple forms of value to make the most of every transaction. In fact, Rakuten’s latest research showed that 44% of members define a “good deal” as one that lets them stack benefits, including:

• Cash Back rewards
• Coupon extensions
• Buy Now, Pay Later options
• Price comparisons and sale timing
• Loyalty points and free shipping

They’re combining tools that deliver savings, flexibility, and confidence in their purchases. For brands, this means moving beyond standalone and static promotions. Value must be accessible, combinable, and reliable.

While spending holds steady or even increases, shoppers are thinking carefully about how to make it work.

Nearly 80% of Rakuten members expect their spending to stay the same or even increase compared to last holiday season. But here’s the catch: just because shoppers plan to spend more doesn’t mean they’ve budgeted for more.

Many are feeling the squeeze — adjusting their budgets, stretching paychecks, and making tradeoffs. And increasingly, they’re turning to those stackable savings to bridge the gap between what they want to spend and what they can spend.

Cash Back. Coupons. Coupon codes. Free shipping. These aren’t just nice-to-haves — they’re essential tools shoppers rely on to make spending feel possible, justified, and worthwhile. If brands want to unlock that spend, they need to lead with value. 

Consumer behavior is shifting… and the calendar is too. 

The pursuit of value isn’t just changing how shoppers buy — it’s also changing when they buy.

• 48% of Rakuten members say they plan to start holiday shopping early to lock in deals before prices rise
• 43% shop year-round for deals, jumping on value as they find it
• 69% say economic conditions are significantly or somewhat affecting their holiday plans

Rising prices, limited-time offers, and tighter budgets are motivating shoppers to act sooner and shop smarter. This year, 21% of members plan to begin holiday shopping in September or October — nearly matching the 23% who say they’ll wait until November.

The traditional “peak” holiday window is flattening. Brands that delay their campaigns or offers until late fall may already be too late.

Reaching today’s shopper takes meaningful investment in a value strategy. 

Shoppers are redefining what loyalty looks like through the lens of value. They’re stacking benefits, starting earlier, and switching brands when it makes sense for their wallets.

Brands that want to win this season must meet consumers where they are — by offering layered value, activating early, and making every offer count.

Because in today’s value-first economy, loyalty is built one stacked benefit at a time. Read our full Q4 2025 State of the Industry or read our latest blog for a deeper dive into how Rakuten can help you win this holiday season.