Winning Holiday 2025: Securing Shoppers’ Finite Spend

PwC recently released its 2025 Holiday Outlook, highlighting the trends shaping this year’s peak season. Holiday 2025 is shaping up to be tighter than ever for consumers, with PwC forecasting a 5% drop in overall holiday spending—the steepest decline since the pandemic. Gift budgets alone are expected to fall 11% year-over-year, and younger shoppers—particularly Gen Z—plan to cut back the most.

For brands, this doesn’t mean opportunity disappears – it means competition for every dollar is fiercer. Shoppers are more selective, blending deal-hunting with strategic splurges, and they expect value, convenience, and meaningful experiences.

These key takeaways from PwC’s holiday report reveal where opportunities lie and how brands can act to capture share on Rakuten.

1. Gift Cards Remain a Steady Driver of Holiday Sales

Gift cards continue to dominate holiday gifting, with 52% of consumers planning to give to friends and 47% to family. Many are choosing gift cards as a way to stick to their budgets while preserving gift-giving traditions.

Action for brands:

• Offer Cash Back on gift card purchases to capitalize on strong demand. Over Cyber 5 last year, gift card sales on Rakuten surged 180% year-over-year.
• Bonus tip: Activate In Store Cash Back to capture post-holiday gift card redemptions and drive foot traffic.

2. Holiday Shoppers are Deliberate, Value-Seeking, and Selective in Splurges

Consumers are blending deal-hunting with selective splurges. While 78% seek lower-cost alternatives, 65% anticipate deeper post-holiday discounts, and searches for “discount” and “coupon code” are up 11% year-over-year, shoppers remain willing to invest in items and experiences they deem worth the splurge.

Action for brands:

• Encourage shoppers to stack benefits—Cash Back, on-site promotions, loyalty points, BNPL, and free shipping—to maximize appeal. Rakuten research shows 44% of members define a “good deal” as one that lets them combine multiple benefits.
• Highlight exclusive perks and offers through Rakuten media placements.
• Give members the option to redeem Cash Back as gift cards through Rakuten’s Gift Card Redemption Program, creating a faster path to rewards while keeping dollars in your business. One in four members redeem a gift card when offered.

3. Gen Z Loyalty Is Built on Relevance and Authenticity

Gen Z’s holiday budget has grown 59% over the last two years. Yet many are navigating early careers and limited savings, planning to reduce holiday spend by 23%—more than any other generation. Strategic pricing, personalized promotions, and authentic brand experiences are critical to winning this audience.

Action for brands:

• Tailor Cash Back rates to what each shopper needs to take action. Rakuten’s Goal-based Solutions programmatically adjust incentives based on shopper behavior, ensuring offers are relevant, effective, and efficient.
• Leverage Rakuten’s Conquesting Suite to reach shoppers actively searching for and browsing competitor sites, highlighting your offers and elevated Cash Back at all stages of the journey.
• Engage this audience early and often. Using Cash Back strategically can differentiate your brand and give selective shoppers a compelling reason to choose you.

4. Capture Shoppers Across Channels

Holiday shopping will be balanced across online and offline touchpoints: 51% plan to shop marketplaces, 53% in-store, 70% prefer home delivery, and 40% will use BOPIS.

Action for brands:

• Integrate Cash Back across in-store and online experiences for seamless earning. On Rakuten, In Store average daily sales grow +79% across December.
• Promote BOPIS and same-day delivery through Rakuten media to win last-minute shoppers.

5. Maximize the Five-Day Holiday Sprint

The Thanksgiving-to-Cyber Monday window accounts for ~40% of all gift spending, and nearly 80% of holiday purchases are complete by Cyber Monday. Success in this five-day sprint comes from being visible, relevant, and ready to convert shoppers before the window closes.

Action for merchants:

• Join Rakuten Cyber promotions to help shoppers stack savings in the most important shopping window. Last year, nearly 900 brands participated over Cyber Week to meet peak-season demand.
• Use email, push notifications, and high-visibility placements like Post-Purchase Takeovers to drive attention and conversions during the peak period.

Turn Holiday Challenges Into Opportunities

Holiday 2025 may be tighter for consumers, but brands that plan strategically can capture share, loyalty, and incremental sales. Rakuten gives merchants the tools to reach shoppers at the right time, in the right channel, with the right incentive. By leaning into Cash Back, convenience, and relevance, your brand can turn a challenging holiday season into a competitive advantage.

Get in touch with a Rakuten representative here.